Officials across the Icelandic government convened in mid-October to conduct a scenario exercise focused on national security. The gathering, hosted by the nation's Ministry of the Environment, Energy, and Climate, aimed to prepare for the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) driven by rising global temperatures. The critical current system normally dredges up cold seawater from the deep Atlantic near the tropics as warmer surface water moves northward, where the cycle pivots and pushes colder water southward.
Climate modelers warn that a serious reduction or complete halt to the AMOC could plunge Scandinavia into routine winter extremes of minus 58 degrees Fahrenheit. Conversely, an end to the circulation could simultaneously bake equatorial regions, weaken monsoon seasons in West Africa and India, and spark droughts across lower latitudes. While radical changes to these Atlantic currents have occurred historically, such as disruptions thousands of years ago, modern policymakers are treating the potential repeat as a severe existential threat to national and global resilience.
Icelandic Minister of the Environment, Energy, and Climate Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson noted that governments must identify threats and prepare society for them just as they do for volcanic eruptions and epidemics. During the October exercise—produced in collaboration with University College London's Climate Action Unit and the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute—planners examined food security, infrastructure threats, and international transportation challenges. This marks the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the country's National Security Council as a direct danger to national security.
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