Global leaders are convening in Antalya, Türkiye, this week for the 31st annual United Nations climate conference, known as COP 31, following a year marked by devastating floods, fires, storms, and heatwaves. Negotiators are tasked with charting a path to curb long-term global warming, ideally keeping it below the 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels set by the Paris Agreement. However, new research published in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that many regions are already living in that hotter world. While global temperatures have averaged 2.2 degrees F or 1.2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels over the past decade, regional warming has reached up to 94% of the levels expected at the 2.7-degree F mark by 2025.
Key takeaways
- Global temperatures have averaged 2.2 degrees F above pre-industrial levels over the past decade.
- Regional warming has reached up to 94% of the levels expected at a 2.7-degree F increase.
- The Russian Arctic recorded the highest warming at 5.9 degrees F above baseline levels.
- Negotiators at COP 31 are focusing on preventing a permanent or catastrophic overshoot of climate targets.
How regional warming outpaces the global average
Almost all regions across the globe have warmed at a faster rate than the global average. Lead author Francis Zwiers, a scientist emeritus at the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium at the University of Victoria, noted during a Thursday press briefing that warming has exceeded 4.5 degrees F, or 2.5 degrees C, in certain high-latitude regions. It has also exceeded 3.6 degrees F, or 2 degrees C, in many others since pre-industrial times. To evaluate changes in areas where historical temperature records are sparse, such as parts of Africa, South America, and the polar regions, researchers combined historical surface observations with simulations from multiple climate models.
Across all 46 global regions recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, scientists estimated human-driven warming relative to the 1850-1900 baseline. They discovered that these regions experienced between 90% and 94% of the warming expected at a 2.7-degree F global increase, and 65% to 76% of the warming expected at a 3.6-degree F global increase. High northern latitudes experienced the most extreme temperature shifts. The Russian Arctic experienced the most dramatic increase, reaching 5.9 degrees F or 3.3 degrees C above baseline levels, while Northeast North America followed at 4.7 degrees F or 2.6 degrees C above baseline. Conversely, ocean-dominated regions including southern South America, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand experienced the smallest amounts of warming.
Navigating overshoot and future adaptation
In the decade since nations signed the Paris Agreement, global temperatures have continued rising at an accelerating pace. A United Nations report published in September revealed that global temperature rise is projected to overshoot the 2.7-degree F target within the next few years. This finding frames the discussions at COP 31, where negotiators are working toward preventing a permanent overshoot. The current best-case scenario outlined by UN scientists is a multi-decadal overshoot, peak, and decline pathway, which would allow global temperature rise to peak at 3.2 degrees F before falling back below the 2.7-degree F threshold.
Understanding how regional warming manifests is critical for local adaptations and ongoing negotiations regarding loss and damage. Co-author Tong Li, a postdoctoral scientist at the University of Victoria, stated that their methods performed well across tropical regions like Africa, providing useful evidence for local climate change comprehension and future planning. As climate conditions careen toward overshoot, researchers emphasize that the new data will guide regional adaptation and infrastructure design, highlighting the pressing necessity for global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Comments